One of the most exciting themes in science, technology and economics today is the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation, but finding the best way to invest in this theme is not always obvious.
The emergence of intelligent machines, sometimes known as “the fourth industrial revolution,” has the power to disrupt many aspects of the business world. While investment in AI and machine learning has come in and out of vogue since first discussed in the 1950s, the current mix of economic forces could unleash a wave of spending.
I believe we are at the start of a multi-year transformation in business and this theme will likely outlive any short-run business or market cycle. For now, investors can choose between companies adopting AI and those that are not. However, that may be short-lived as firms that invest in these technologies realize business efficiencies while those that ignore these tools may struggle to remain in business.
Higher wage costs are driving businesses to increase capital spending to improve efficiency in the competitive global economy and companies have access to investment capital following the 2017 tax legislation. Another long-term motivation is demographic in nature. The developed world has a unique challenge, with many countries facing labor shortfalls. By 2050, the U.S. alone will likely face an 18-million worker shortfall.
A One Trillion Industry by 2050
If the AI industry grows at a compound annual rate in excess of 15% (my current estimate), it could reach nearly $1 trillion in revenues by 2050, based on automation replacing the projected shortfall of 18 million U.S. workers. With Europe, Japan and China facing similar demographic deficits, that growth estimate is likely conservative.
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