In 2026, the DDR memory market enters a supply-driven structural super cycle, with a supply-demand gap of 7.1%, most prominent in the server segment. A fundamental shift in demand structure occurs: the server sector accounts for 45% of the market, as AI server memory consumption surges by 40%-50% year-on-year, making high-density DDR5 the core growth driver. Meanwhile, the PC segment holds only a 10% share, and mobile DRAM growth slows down significantly. Leading manufacturers divert over 70% of their high-end capacity to HBM and DDR5, resulting in continuous contraction of DDR4 supply.
In terms of pricing, all categories maintain the sharp upward trend. Server DDR5 sees a 50% price increase per module in 8 months, while desktop DDR5 prices soar by more than 400%. Due to production cuts, DDR4 becomes a scarce resource with strong price resilience—prices will keep surging in H1 2026 and fluctuate at a high level in H2.
Technologically, DDR5′s full replacement accelerates: its penetration rate exceeds 60% in the server sector and becomes mainstream for PCs, with the base frequency upgraded to 6400MHz. HBM3E/HBM4 becomes the standard configuration for AI chips, boasting a market size exceeding 10 billion USD. However, HBM’s occupation of advanced capacity exacerbates DDR5 shortages, and domestic manufacturers have not yet achieved mass production of HBM. The life cycle of DDR4 is extended to the end of 2026, with ChangXin Memory Technologies ramping up related capacity.
The golden window for localization substitution opens: ChangXin Memory Technologies advances customer verification of DDR5, targeting a market share exceeding 5%. Enterprises like GigaDevice and Longsys make efforts across different links. Favorable factors include policy funding and downstream procurement inclination, but bottlenecks such as EUV lithography machine embargoes persist, making high-end market breakthroughs challenging.
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