The backdrop to rising commodity prices
Global loose monetary liquidity.In order to further rescue the market, most countries in Europe and the United States adopted economic stimulus plans, easy monetary liquidity contributed to the rise of this round of commodities
Supply side tightening.The outbreak has damaged copper production in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, and reduced output by Vale, the world’s largest iron ore supplier, adding fuel to a rally in global copper and iron ore prices
The epidemic control results are promising.Since the second half of last year, China’s economy has been the first to recover and the global epidemic has gradually improved.Rising expectations of a global economic recovery have boosted demand for commodities this year as countries aggressively buy vaccines and the pace of vaccination has accelerated
In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutral, copper, aluminum and steel production capacity will be further reduced, coupled with the accelerated pace of domestic manufacturing recovery and strong demand, metal raw material prices will maintain an upward trend this year.
The rise in raw material prices has a great impact on traditional asset-heavy and labor-intensive manufacturing industries such as home appliances, textiles and machinery manufacturing, while high-end manufacturing enterprises with high added value are not affected much.According to the analysis, the leading enterprises and large enterprises in the industry have abundant capital flow and strong anti-risk ability. They can hedge against the rising price of raw materials by extending the industrial chain, buying futures, hoarding raw materials, following the price rise and other ways, and even become the beneficiaries of raw material prices.Small and micro enterprises engaged in processing, finished products and other links are directly affected by the price rise of raw materials, mainly reflected in profit compression, or even “the more open the more losses”. If the rising trend of raw materials prices continues, there may be a number of enterprises shut down or go bankrupt
Under the “price surge”, the impact is not limited to the enterprise end, but also may cause inflation risk, affecting the end consumption.Rising prices for raw materials will surely gradually be passed down the river and will likely spill over into consumer sectors such as household goods and spark inflation in the future.
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